Russia is not yet ripe for peace talks — with what mood the world is entering November

 

November is coming and it is logical that peace talks should begin. After all, Russia failed to achieve any strategic goals during the summer and autumn, so there is no reason to hope that it will be able to achieve them in the future. In the meantime, sanctions are tightening, they will only get worse and it would be logical to take a break (which Russia needs so much) when everything is not so bad, when it is not too late.

But the negotiations will not begin, because a different logic is at work. First, it is impossible to simply stop the war. A million contract soldiers cannot be left on the front line without action, cannot be returned to permanent deployment points (because they do not exist), cannot simply return home (because they will destroy all of Russia, as in 1917). Secondly, the war cannot end without achieving at least some of the "goals of the special military operation" as the attack on Ukraine is called in Russia, whatever that means and no matter how they change from time to time. Something must be presented to the masses and the elites to make it clear that the Tsar is the winner. And something must be done about the rampant machine of the military-industrial complex, the beneficiaries of which are increasingly the highest elites of the country.

So, everything that happened in the summer and early autumn will continue.

 

What does Russia hope for? That it will still be possible to seriously break through the front somewhere. That it will be possible to leave Ukrainian cities without electricity and heating, and Ukrainian society will demand a peace agreement under any conditions. That Trump will again believe in Russian promises about superprojects.

What does Ukraine hope for? That the Russian economy is rapidly falling into the abyss. That Russian air defense is being carried out with means of destruction and is retreating towards Moscow, leaving more and more facilities outside Moscow completely unprotected, so that it will be possible to reach Russian oil export facilities and other key points. That sanctions are reducing Russia's ability to wage war each time.

What does Europe hope for? That Ukraine will gain time. That it will deploy its own production and armed forces. That it will increase European unity.

What does the US hope for? That negotiations with China will begin, the topic of which will be a new world order. And then peace in key points of the planet will be a consequence of establishing this order. Specifically, China will help to calm Russia.

What does China hope for? That Russia, with its vast resources, will fall into its hands without a single bullet. In both the scenario of Moscow’s consolidation of power, when the empire turns into a totalitarian state, and in the scenario of Moscow’s collapse of power, when everything falls apart chaotically - in both scenarios, everything falls into Beijing’s hands. That control over the Arctic will make China the undisputed leader in the race.

What does everyone else hope for? That it will somehow pass.

With such hopes, the world enters November.