Construction amid explosions, land for Wagner fighters, and the targeting of women activists: how Russia is changing the face of Crimea

Two artificial islands, shaped like crescent moons, jut out into the turquoise sea alongside the gleaming white sails of some disproportionately large yachts. This artist’s impression of a marina is the most fantastical part of a planned development on Crimea’s western coast.

Other elements of this ambitious project include water parks, amusement parks, spas, a medical centre, shopping malls, a memorial museum, a 12-km-long promenade, and even a railway station. The centerpiece is 17 hotels ranging from three to five stars, offering 5,000 rooms to accommodate guests year-round, not just during the tourist season.

This is the vision for a massive resort development between Yevpatoriia and Saky that the Russian-installed authorities in Crimea aim to start work on this year. The resort – still only a plan on paper backed by bold promises – is to cover 226 hectares, roughly 40 times the size of Kyiv’s Shevchenko Park and has been unofficially dubbed the "Crimean Dubai". The first tourists are expected in five years, and the goal is to attract a million visitors annually.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Crimea has become both a launchpad for attacks on mainland Ukraine and a frontline zone. Explosions frequently rock the peninsula and military infrastructure goes up in flames as it is targeted by Ukrainian forces. The Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea to Russia is periodically closed due to security threats. Air travel ceased in February 2022. Underground water sources are becoming increasingly salty, and the North Crimean Canal – which once supplied water from the Dnipro – has been permanently out of commission since Russia blew up the Kakhovka dam.

Big business is scared off by the sanctions on Crimea that have been in place for over a decade. Under Ukrainian law, any property deals made after 2014 are legally void. They are only valid as long as the occupation lasts.

You might think these factors should reduce Crimea’s appeal to average Russians and investors. But the opposite is true. Construction is booming, prices continue to rise, and the occupation authorities are announcing large-scale projects like the "Crimean Dubai". They're also working to attract more Russians to the peninsula.

Russia’s policy of population replacement in Crimea is nothing new. The Kremlin began implementing a colonisation policy from the very first months of Crimea’s occupation. Pro-Ukrainian residents have faced persecution. Property owned by locals without Russian passports has been seized. Russian officials and military personnel have been relocated to the region. Businesses were promised golden opportunities, while professionals such as doctors and teachers were lured in with generous financial incentives.

But over the past year and a half, this colonisation policy has taken a new turn, marked by a surge in housing development and the large-scale distribution of Crimean land.

Crimea’s explosions and the property market

Over the past year, Ukrainian forces have carried out at least 78 strikes on occupied Crimea. They have used Storm Shadows and ATACMS, combined missiles and drones, and sea drones. They’ve hit airfields, ammo depots, oil storage sites, communication hubs, ships, and air defence systems. 

Yet despite the ongoing war, the property market in Crimea is booming. Nearly twice as many apartments were sold in new developments in 2024 compared to 2023. Prices on the primary market jumped by 20-22%. The average cost per square metre rose from RUB 180,000 (around US$1,900) in spring 2024 to RUB 214,000 (US$2,100) by year-end – reaching RUB 230,000 (US$2,260) in resort areas. Premium housing prices have more than doubled since the full-scale invasion began.

In 2024, Crimea saw a record 1.2 million sq m of new housing completed.

Open-source data shows that investment deals – when buyers purchase property at the planning or construction stage – have nearly doubled compared to 2020. For many Russians, owning a property in Crimea is now less about living or holidaying there and more about securing an appreciating asset during the occupation.

Local estate agents estimate the value of property transactions over the past three years at RUB 15 billion (approx. UAH 7.8 billion, or around US$195 million, as of May 2025).

Olha Skrypnyk of the Crimean Human Rights Group says the reason for the disconnect between the war and these soaring prices is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces only target military facilities, so ordinary residents, far away from air bases or depots, don’t often feel the impact of the explosions.

A significant share of the demand for Crimean property comes from Russian military personnel and their families.

"Before 2022, there were a lot of civilian programmes like ‘Zemsky teacher’ or ‘Zemsky doctor’ [programmes in Russia that encourage teachers and doctors to move to rural areas and work in schools or hospitals in those areas – ed.] – Russia’s way of relocating as many civilians as possible to change the demographic," says Skrypnyk. "Since 2022, especially over the past 18 months to two years, the presence of military personnel has intensified."

In Crimea there are entire housing complexes built exclusively for military personnel, confirms Olha Kuryshko, the Permanent Representative of the President of Ukraine to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Additionally, some families living in Russia are using payouts they received for participation in the war to invest in Crimean property.

But the military are not the only colonisers. Russia continues to lure citizens from its economically depressed regions to Crimea.

"There are several preferential programmes that offer favourable terms for purchasing housing, including subsidised loans where part of the loan is covered by the Russian Federation, and higher salaries," explains Kuryshko. "That’s why many Russians from depressed regions are buying property on the understanding that they have certain guarantees. They can secure housing in Crimea, where it’s better in terms of the environment and the climate is warmer."

Crimean land for Russian soldiers

Another category of newcomers in Crimea are Russian "volunteers" fighting in the war against Ukraine.

In December 2022, the occupying authorities in Crimea launched a support programme for "participants in the special military operation", promoted by Sergey Aksyonov, the Russian-installed head of Crimea. Registered participants in Russia’s invasion – or their families, if the soldier was killed – were granted 600 sq m of land, mainly in coastal areas: Saky, Chornomorske, Lenine and Simferopol.

In September 2024, the programme changed dramatically. The right to acquire land was granted not only to local contract soldiers, but to all Russians who signed a contract with the Ministry of Defence in occupied Crimea. In October, this list was expanded to include individuals with "legal relations with an organisation that protects the interests of veterans of local wars and armed conflicts" – in other words, Wagner Group members.

By the end of 2024, veterans of the so-called "special military operation" had submitted over 10,000 applications for land. The designated purpose of these land plots permits residential construction. In the future, these people may integrate into local communities and influence their decisions.

Where will the occupying authorities find enough land for everyone who wants it? The answer is the clearest illustration of Russia’s population replacement policy.

Back in 2021, Putin issued a decree banning foreigners from owning land in most parts of Crimea. The order affected over 11,000 land plots owned by people without Russian passports – predominantly Ukrainians.

"It took some time for the mechanisms to be developed to implement this," explains Olha Kuryshko. "Now the occupying authorities have started going to court, claiming that landowners failed to relinquish their property within the designated timeframe. The courts have begun expropriating this land."

Another affected group, she says, are Crimeans who acquired land back in Ukrainian times after it was relinquished in favour of local communities by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence. These land plots are now being seized as well, on the pretext that Ukraine’s Defence Ministry had no right to transfer them.

"These seizures are being carried out specifically to fulfil the obligations that the Russian Federation has taken on toward members of its armed formations," says Kuryshko.

A new target for the FSB

On the eve of the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian researchers studying demographic shifts in Crimea estimated that between 700,000 and 1 million Russians had moved to the peninsula since the occupation. These are striking figures for a region that had a population of just 2.35 million before 2014.

At the same time, the number of Crimeans who had relocated to mainland Ukraine was estimated at 50,000 to 70,000. The actual number may be higher, as not all the displaced persons have officially registered their status.

The full-scale war has exacerbated this trend. Crimea continues to absorb Russian military personnel while losing local residents, many of whom fled as early as 2022 to avoid being conscripted into the Russian army.

Russia’s repressive regime has been in place in Crimea since the first days of the occupation, but since the start of the full-scale war it has reached a new level in terms of targeting dissenters, further increasing the number of people seeking to leave the peninsula.

"The persecution has become much more severe," says Olha Skrypnyk. "Over the past 18 months, charges of treason have become a common tool. It’s a very convenient article [to charge people under], and Russia makes extensive use of it.

First of all, cases of treason are immediately classified and fall under the label of state secrets. Secondly, the vague wording of the article means it can cover almost anything – from donating UAH 100 (about US$2.50) to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, to listening to Ukrainian songs or travelling to Ukrainian-controlled territory."

Since the full-scale invasion began, Russia’s repressive machine in Crimea has broadened its focus. Before 2022, the Federal Security Service (FSB) mostly went after men when it came to political persecution. Now they’re targeting women as well.

"In some cases in 2024, the FSB actually began targeting women activists (and men too, of course) who took part in protests back in 2014," Skrypnyk says. "They’re being summoned for interrogations and in some cases are even facing criminal charges. These events happened 11 years ago, but for the Russian state, they fall into the category of the so-called ‘underground resistance’ – something it fears deeply."