27.07.2026.

Putin likes his worst option in Ukraine

The goal of the 2022 invasion—the military and political subjugation of all of Ukraine—is not achievable, meaning Putin has already failed. It is an open question whether his government could sustain a ceasefire that would effectively acknowledge such an outcome. But it is almost certain that he would not be able to politically survive a scenario in which he loses control of Crimea.

If Russian President Vladimir Putin were soberly assessing the situation in the war against Ukraine, he would seek to achieve a ceasefire. However, his judgment is clearly not sober, because all signs indicate that he intends to resort to some kind of escalation. If he does indeed go down that path, he will make the situation worse for everyone, but above all for himself.

Since meeting with US President Donald Trump in Anchorage in August 2025, Putin has been trying to convince the US to force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into an agreement in which Russia would retain control of the territories it has already seized - just under 20 percent of Ukraine's territory - and Ukraine would also hand over the small part of Donetsk Oblast that it still controls.

It is worth recalling that before the Anchorage meeting, Trump had the support of both Ukraine and the Europeans in his efforts to establish an immediate ceasefire. But, after talking with Putin, he suddenly abandoned his demand for a ceasefire and instead accepted Putin’s demand regarding Donetsk. The Europeans, quite naturally, rushed to protect Zelensky from the pressure that Putin and Trump would try to put on him, and political talks on ending the fighting reached an impasse. It was Trump – once again fooled by Putin – who prolonged the war.

The area in question has no economic significance, but it is important for Ukraine’s defense, and it also has symbolic weight for Putin, who in 2022 amended the Russian constitution to declare Donetsk part of Russia. That makes it unlikely that Ukraine would simply surrender its positions. Over the past year and a half, the Russian military has gradually lost its capabilities, as reflected in the declining quality of Russian troops, while Ukraine’s technological capabilities on the battlefield have improved significantly. As a result, the front line has turned into a “death zone” that is barely moving. Of course, Putin still seems to believe that his forces can take full control of Donetsk, while his generals still fear the consequences of being told that this is not possible. However, the odds are heavily stacked against him. Putin also believes that strikes on civilian settlements and critical infrastructure can force Ukraine to surrender. But while it undoubtedly causes immense suffering, aerial bombardment by itself has never won a war, and it will not win this one in Ukraine. Over the past few months, Ukraine has expanded its own medium- and long-range drone attacks on targets in Russia, disabling a significant portion of oil refining capacity and causing a politically painful fuel supply crisis across the country. Ukraine will only intensify these attacks.

But the real game-changer could be Ukraine’s push to cut off supply chains connecting Crimea to Russia. Ukrainians have been repeatedly attacking trucks passing through the occupied land corridor in eastern Ukraine, the bridge and ferries across the Kerch Strait, and ships trying to bring supplies across the Sea of Azov. This campaign has already complicated the situation for the Kremlin, and could prove politically disastrous if Russia’s control of Crimea is seriously challenged. At that point, even a freeze on the conflict along the existing “death zone” may no longer be possible.

Apart from Putin, hardly anyone in Russia cares much about the small part of Donetsk that is now blocking the political process. But many do - rightly or wrongly - care about Crimea. After all, it was Putin's seizure of that peninsula in March 2014 that boosted his popularity and set the stage for a full-scale invasion in 2022.

Yet the goal of the 2022 invasion—the military and political subjugation of all of Ukraine—is not achievable, meaning Putin has already failed. It is an open question whether his government could sustain a ceasefire that would effectively acknowledge such an outcome. But it is almost certain that he would not be able to politically survive a scenario in which he loses control of Crimea.

Therefore, if Putin were acting rationally, he should forget Anchorage and accept the ceasefire immediately. If he continues on his current path, he is unlikely to capture the part of Donetsk he wants, but he is very likely to lose control of Crimea. Moreover, opinion polls show that the vast majority of Russians support ending the war.

A ceasefire would certainly not end the conflict itself. A lasting political solution would still be a long way off. But at least shifting the conflict to the political sphere would encourage change in both Russia and Ukraine and open up space for diplomacy involving a wider range of external actors. Unfortunately, Putin seems determined to continue on his current path, right down to the edge of the abyss.

The author is the former Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden