Russia Fuels Migrant Surge in Hybrid War Tactic
Russia is weaponizing migration to destabilize Europe, using violence and human trafficking networks in Libya. This strategic hybrid warfare tactic is aimed at sowing division between Europe and Ukraine, while weaponizing human movement for geopolitical gain.
Finland is seeking to extend its emergency law, allowing it to reject asylum applications at the Russian border. The law, set to expire in July 2025, would be extended until the end of 2026 under a new proposal to parliament.
Finland says Russia is weaponizing migration, funnelling people across the Finnish border to destabilize the region.
“The use of migration as a weapon has become a serious and persistent hybrid threat,” said European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius on July 7, warning that Russia’s tactics now pose “new challenges for the whole EU.”
Russia is desperate to create a migration crisis too difficult for Europe to handle. It will succeed if Europe continues to ignore warnings like this.
Philip Obaji
Journalist
Libya is now a key front in this strategy.
Moscow’s growing influence in Libya is giving the Kremlin leverage over migrant routes across the Mediterranean, European officials say.
EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner and officials from Italy, Greece, and Malta traveled to Libya on July 8 to urge tighter migration controls—but were reportedly denied entry due to a “protocol issue.”
Just days earlier, more than 1,200 migrants arrived in Crete and Gavdos from Libya and were placed in temporary camps, InfoMigrants <button class="c-prose__info" type="button" data-tooltip-target="#idNNIcj" data-tooltip-type="hover clickable" aria-describedby="#postTooltip"></button> reported.
Western intelligence considers Russia’s actions in Africa—especially in Libya—the second-most urgent threat after its war in Ukraine, The Times reported.
Russia’s use of migration as a weapon isn’t new. Back in 2021, Russia and Eurasia Studies Centre had reported that “the build-up of migrants at the Polish border is completely artificial and has been caused by the Kremlin as part of its campaign of hybrid warfare against the West.”
The Kremlin’s claim that it has nothing to do with the migrant crisis is as much Russian disinformation as its long-standing denial that Russian security forces are operating in Ukraine.
Taras Kuzio
Russia and Eurasia Studies Centre
What is weaponized migration?
By overwhelming borders, dividing EU states, and fueling political extremism, Moscow seeks to erode Europe's cohesion and draw focus away from its war in Ukraine.
Russia can “turn on and turn off the tap” of migration as it pleases, Kilian Kleinschmidt, a humanitarian expert, told the Telegraph.
“Migration has become, as we know, the major theme for the political Right and populists. The Russians clearly use that theme to make Europe nervous and influence elections,” Kleinschmidt added.
He says a similar tactic was used in 2019, just ahead of the European elections, when a surge of migrants was quietly pushed northward through Turkey and Greece.
In 2016, Ankara threatened to flood Europe—already struggling with mass migrant arrivals from Turkey in Greece—with millions of Syrian refugees if certain demands were not met.
Under pressure, the EU promised Turkey 6 billion Euros to fund the resettlement of Syrian refugees, liberalization of EU visas, and an acceleration of talks about Turkish membership in the EU.
Turkey repeated the successful tactic in 2019. Any sanctions placed against the country or condemnation for its military intervention in Syria would have Turkish President Erdogan “opening the gates and sending 3.6 million refugees your way,” Erdogan warned.
Russia forces migrants over the Finnish border
Finland’s “exceptional emergency law” closed its 830-mile (1,340-kilometer) border with Russia. The temporary law is “a bill combatting the instrumentalisation of migration—a cynical form of hybrid influencing used by Russia”, Elina Valtonen, the Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs, said in March 2024.
Helsinki reported that nearly 1,000 undocumented migrants crossed into Finland from Russia in the two weeks before the border closure—compared to fewer than 100 asylum seekers in the first half of 2023, according to reports.
Routes from the Middle East to Finland were openly advertised on Telegram for up to $2,800, Helsingin Sanomat <button class="c-prose__info" type="button" data-tooltip-target="#idGgyos" data-tooltip-type="hover clickable" aria-describedby="#postTooltip"></button> reported. Many migrants arrived on brand-new bicycles, handed out to bypass Russia’s ban on approaching border posts on foot, the BBC reported.
While some European politicians have acknowledged the threat, experts at Chatham House warn that EU responses remain inadequate against Russia’s growing use of migration as a weapon.
Migration from Libya to Europe
Overall, irregular border crossings into the EU dropped by 20% in early 2025, but one route is surging: the Central Mediterranean, where Libya remains the main departure point, Frontex <button class="c-prose__info" type="button" data-tooltip-target="#id5k5mW" data-tooltip-type="hover clickable" aria-describedby="#postTooltip"></button> reported.
From January to February 2025, arrivals via the Central Mediterranean route saw the biggest rise of arrivals in the EU with 48% year-on-year, Frontex reports. More than 28,000 migrants have reached Italy from Libya this year—over 550 have died along this route this year alone.
Smugglers are using high-powered speedboats to outmanoeuvre authorities, charging between €5,000 and €8,000 per person.
Many Bangladeshi migrants now dominate this flow, arriving in Libya legally through labor deals, then buying €10,000 “packages” including transport, and the deadly sea crossing.
Tortured in Libya and dead in the sea—the story never changes
UN’s International Organisation for Migration Spokesman
The Central Mediterranean is the deadliest migration route in the world. In just the first five months of 2025, 651 people died and thousands went missing at sea, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimated.
Hundreds of documented human remains have been discovered along Libya’s shores that cannot be connected to any known shipwreck.
Throughout July 2025, over 500 migrants a day are now landing on Crete on average, pushing the year’s total to more than 8,000 arrivals from Libya to Greece.
Russia’s use of Libya for its own strategic gain
Russia has been exploiting its presence in Libya for several reasons: to gain access to critical energy supplies and seaports, establish military bases, and facilitate flows of migrants, weaponizing human movement against Europe.
The Russia–Libya relationship has evolved over several decades but deepened in 2008, when Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, canceled $4.5 billion in Libyan debt in exchange for major contracts with Russian companies, many involving Soviet arms, Russian media reported.
In 2015, Moscow solidified its relationship with the Libya National Army (LNA) and its commander, Khalifa Haftar. Russia agreed to deploy private military companies, such as Wagner, now known as “Africa Corps,” to provide military support for the LNA. This gave Russia considerable political and military leverage.
Russian forces in Libya are not random, but part of a calculated strategy;
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Destabilize Europe by creating political and social crises linked to migration.
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Extract profits through smuggling and trafficking operations.
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Strengthen ties with Haftar to secure military bases and resource access.
Wagner intensified the conflict, resulting in thousands of Libyans fleeing their homes, the majority of them heading towards Europe.
Russia’s buildup in Libya accelerated after the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria in early December 2024, and Moscow relocated much of its equipment and its forces by air and sea to several bases in LNA-controlled Libya.
Those bases, especially in Benghazi and Tobruk, which are critical hubs for migrant trafficking, now serve as logistics hubs to feed Russia’s operations across Africa.
Migration routes are “inseparable” from the areas in which Wagner and other Russian paramilitaries operate.
“Nothing happens in eastern Libya without the say-so of Haftar and his family,” Jalel Harchaoui, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said.
Putin would like nothing more than to keep Europe busy and divided over Libya, scared of illegal immigration, paralyzed by right-wing populism that threatens the very idea of the EU.
Libya Outlook
Human smuggling operations in Libya
Saddam Haftar, son of the LNA commander, Khalifa Haftar, and wanted by Spain in 2024 for arms smuggling, has become Russia’s main contact in Libya.
Many African migrants move overland, but others—from as far as Bangladesh—fly into Haftar-controlled Benina airport via the Syrian carrier Cham Wings Airlines.
From 2020, Cham Wings ran twice-weekly flights from Damascus to Benghazi’s Benina, even advertising some as “migrant flights” on Facebook, Tarek Megerisi, analyst at European Council on Foreign Relations, reported.
This fueled a dark network of human trafficking under Saddam’s control.
Russia has used all this to help Haftar's putative heir, Saddam Haftar, expand Libya's role as a hot spot for smuggling of weapons, drugs, fuel—and people," Megerisi stated.
European Council on Foreign Relations Analyst
Between January 2021 and March 2022, Cham Wings operated at least 187 flights, transporting up to 32,538 people, while migrant arrivals from Libya to Italy rose to about 21,000.
Cham Wings was also heavily used by Wagner for military transport, sometimes via Russian military airbases in Syria.
Those who use the “migrant flight” are handed over to Haftar’s forces, held until paid, then sent to “launch points” for Europe-bound boats. Saddam’s coastguards demand bribes between $100 per migrant for smaller boats (of around 300-550 people) or $80,000 flat fee for larger boats, Megerisi reports.
Many of these migrants came from areas under Wagner's control. In the first three months of 2023, 20,000 migrants reached Italy, up from 6,100 in the same period of 2022. The Italian government blames Wagner for orchestrating the surge, in retaliation against countries supporting Ukraine.
I think it is now safe to say that the exponential increase in the migratory phenomenon departing from African shores is… part of a clear strategy of hybrid warfare that the Wagner division is implementing
Italian Defense Minister
Megerisi also revealed that Cham Wings flew migrants from Damascus to Minsk, Belarus—another sign of Russia’s deep involvement in this hybrid warfare.
Wagner’s role in mass migration from Libya
In 2024, 787,000 people who are migrants and refugees were at one time present in Libya, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) reported.
Russian-aligned militias like Wagner exacerbated human suffering experienced by migrants in Libya with exploitation, violence, and neglect.
People on the move are an integral part of an economic model set up by militias, with the complicity of the European Union and its member states, with the aim of extorting money from them.
Steve Purbrick
Many migrants arrive legally—especially Bangladeshis on work visas—but are then detained, tortured, extorted, trafficked, assaulted, or sexually abused by militias tied to Wagner and Haftar.
Russian-backed forces push migrants into dangerous desert zones, block safer transit routes and civilian homes, and support brutal detention camps rife with human rights abuses. This forces migrants onto Europe-bound, deadly boat routes as their only escape.
The Wagner Group added to the deadly legacy of mines and booby traps scattered across Tripoli’s suburbs that have made it dangerous for people to return to their homes
In 2019, Wagner was accused of shooting migrants in prisons and planting mines near civilian homes. More than 100 civilians, including migrants, were killed or maimed by mines.
Investigators found a Wagner-owned computer tablet showing mines they’d planted in 35 different places near civilian buildings, IOM reported.
Militias frequently raid migrant homes, taking them to detention centres while committing physical and sexual abuse. While Wagner may not directly run detention centers, their presence enables and protects the militias running them.
Released migrants often hide or become homeless, fearing re-arrest. Resulting in many of them risking the perilous sea crossing to Europe, paying smugglers tied to Wagner and Haftar, the very militias that caused them to flee.
“The instability and human rights abuses in migrant detention centers contribute to a surge in migrants heading to Southern Europe,” Georgetown Security studies <button class="c-prose__info" type="button" data-tooltip-target="#id8DzCs" data-tooltip-type="hover clickable" aria-describedby="#postTooltip"></button> reported.
How Russia aims to sow division in Europe
Ukraine urgently needs strong, unified support from Europe throughout Russia’s invasion. But rising migrant flows are fueling populist and anti-immigrant politics within EU countries, threatening that unity.
Mass migration provides the Kremlin with major gains for Russia. The high volume of migrants attempting to cross into Europe puts a strain on already stretched border security measures.
While Ukraine fights in the east, Poland and Lithuania must reinforce their northern borders against increased migrant crossings.
The Kremlin can gain key information on how governments and societies respond to the migrant crisis, providing Russia with a blueprint for how to destabilize the target country in the future.
Countries like Hungary and Slovakia, citing migration concerns, have delayed or diluted Ukraine support packages.
Russian disinformation networks spread the narrative that “Ukrainians are not welcome in Europe” or “Ukraine's support causes migration chaos.”
This led to Ukrainian refugees in Moldova, Romania, Poland, and Slovakia experiencing some anti-migration behaviour and discrimination, even back when European support for Ukrainian refugees was at its highest, the European Council of Foreign Relations reported.
Refugee fatigue is Putin’s expectation; it is also a propaganda tactic, through which the Kremlin builds on European myths and anxieties about migration more broadly to stoke resistance to Ukrainian refugees.
European Council of Foreign Relations
These messages exploit growing migration fatigue in Europe, lowering public support for further military and financial aid to Kyiv.
Division amongst NATO allies and the West as a whole through mass illegal migration is part of Russia’s broader hybrid warfare strategy: using migration as a tool to weaken Europe’s political cohesion and reduce assistance to Ukraine when it’s needed most.