Russian 'offensive' to save Dodik's mandate

All of this is part of the Russian "offensive" in an attempt to save the position of the pro-Russian leader of the leading Serb party in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik, who was finally sentenced to prison and banned from political activity, and who was also stripped of his mandate as president of Republika Srpska.

Less than 24 hours after consultations in the UN Security Council on the process against Dodik, convened at the request of Russia, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina decided to send a letter to the countries of the Quinte (USA, Great Britain, Germany, France and Italy).

The goal is to point out "serious threats to the stability and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina coming from Russia", especially in the context of the recent decision of the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Bosnia and Herzegovina to strip Milorad Dodik of his mandate.

Dodik's mandate as President of the Republika Srpska was revoked after he was sentenced to one year in prison and banned from holding public political office for the next six years for disrespecting the decisions of the High Representative in BiH.

Elmedin Konaković, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina, told Radio Free Europe that letters to the foreign ministries of the Quint member countries will be sent on Friday, August 8.

He added that the latest statement by the Russian Embassy in Sarajevo, in which it questions "the existence of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a single state," is understood as the "sharpest and most concentrated threat" to BiH so far.

In this context, Konaković said, he will talk to the ambassadors of the Quint countries in Sarajevo on August 11.

"Moscow is continuously using the political crisis in BiH as a space to expand its influence, especially by supporting the leadership of Republika Srpska and political leaders like Dodik. We will not allow such messages to encourage those who call for a blockade of elections or a referendum that questions the constitutional order. These are not diplomatic statements, but open threats to the state," Konaković told RFE/RL.

The embassies of the "Quinte" countries in Bosnia and Herzegovina did not immediately respond to Radio Free Europe's inquiry about Russian allegations and attempts to save Dodik's mandate.

 

New Russian moves in Bosnia and Herzegovina are expected

Konaković also told RFE/RL that Bosnia and Herzegovina institutions are ready to respond to "Russian threats".

"We know that Russia is not only acting politically. They are ready for espionage activities, cyber attacks, disinformation. We have seen their operations in Moldova, Romania and Georgia. Bosnia and Herzegovina is no exception", Konaković said.

He points out that he currently has no information about the arrival of Russian citizens in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but that he knows "about some other activities", which he cannot yet talk about until "additional information and confirmations" arrive.

"It's exclusively about their people who are here and who have, they had some diplomatic statuses before, but... When I have (information) and it's in our interest for you to know it, we will publish it," Konaković told RFE/RL.

The Russian Embassy in Sarajevo did not immediately respond to RFE/RL's inquiry regarding Konaković's claims.

 

The Russian version of the story and pressure on the UN

The emergency consultations of the UN Security Council behind closed doors on August 7th represent the first time that Moscow has used UN structures directly to try to save the pro-Russian leader of the leading Serb party in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

 

In all its reactions to the final verdict against Milorad Dodik, Russia has shown that it does not consider it "legitimate", but rather "an attempt to remove an undesirable leader", as Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, pointed out.

The Russian Deputy Ambassador to the UN Dmitry Polyansky told reporters after the consultations that "the criminal prosecution of Dodik threatens the stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina".

 

In doing so, he repeated the Russian narrative that Christian Schmidt is not a legitimate High Representative because he has not been confirmed by the Security Council.

Russian representatives also claim that the court decisions are politically motivated and a product of Western pressure, while Dodik is portrayed as a symbol of resistance to the "imposed" government.

The Russian Embassy in Sarajevo also sent messages that went beyond the boundaries of classical diplomacy. "The moment of truth has come for BiH," they said, saying that the country is facing a "point of no return."

BiH's UN Ambassador Zlatko Lagumdžija, in a post on social media, assessed that the Russian attempt to put Dodik's verdict on the Security Council table was unsuccessful.

"The Russians were the only ones who denied the court verdicts. All other member states reaffirmed the territorial integrity and sovereignty of BiH, supporting the rule of law and legal decisions of institutions," Lagumdžija wrote.

Although Russia claims that High Representative Christian Schmidt is not legitimate because his mandate has not been formally confirmed by the UN Security Council, the wider international community, including the US and most EU countries, believe that Schmidt was appointed in accordance with the powers of the Peace Implementation Council in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The UN previously clarified that Schmidt has full legitimacy to work in Bosnia and Herzegovina, thus denying the Russian thesis about his illegality.

 

 

Buka magazine editor Aleksandar Trifunović told RFE/RL that Russia "is not so much interested in Dodik" as in the possibility of influencing events in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the country "farthest" from the East to the European Union.

"Republika Srpska is the deepest point of the East in the European zone, the closest point to Croatia, which is in the EU, the closest point to Vienna. And Russia is using this opportunity, just as it is using Dodik and just as Dodik is going to Putin. I recall the situation when the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, when we had a statement from the Russian Embassy in Bosnia and Herzegovina reminding Dodik of the agreements with Putin," said Trifunović.

 

He points out that in the current situation, it is questionable how much this reaction from Russia suits Dodik, because currently the Serbian authorities, led by President Aleksandar Vučić, but also Dodik himself, are "trying to get closer" to the American administration.

"I don't know how that fits into this story of cooperation and collaboration with Russia. I don't even think that Dodik is insisting on the kind of immediate support, in such a radical way, in tones that are not in keeping with diplomacy, as much as Russia is now using this opportunity to react in this way," Trifunović points out.

When it comes to Russia's future activities, Trifunović predicts that Moscow will continue to use every opportunity to show that it has a certain kind of influence on Serbia and Republika Srpska.

"I assume that it will have some activities that could, in some way, further complicate the situation and I think that it will force Dodik to go in that direction. I have no dilemmas with that," Trifunović concludes.

After the Court of BiH finally convicted Milorad Dodik, in accordance with the Election Law of BiH, the CEC stripped him of his mandate on August 6, paving the way for early elections in Republika Srpska.

Dodik responded by announcing a referendum on his mandate, although the Constitution of BiH does not recognize such a possibility.

 

He announced that the elections in RS would not be held "while he is president", and the RS Government and SNSD rejected the ruling, announcing a special session of the entity parliament.

Despite the threatening rhetoric, RS institutions have so far not taken any legally binding measures to challenge the CEC's decision or announce a formal blockade of the elections.