Europe’s counter-proposal to Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the war in Ukraine has found a level of common ground with Russia but questions remain over the future of Ukrainian territory.
The plan, drawn up by Britain, Germany and France, contains a number of concessions, including a cap on the size of Ukraine’s army and a commitment to elections that could see Volodymyr Zelensky removed from power.
Large elements remain the same – even up to the wording of specific clauses – including that Russia would be readmitted to the G7, making it the G8, in the event of a peace deal.
However, Nato membership would remain a possibility for Ukraine, a key point that was barred under the American peace proposal.
The counterproposal makes clear that there is currently no consensus on Ukraine joining Nato within the alliance, an addition that may have been included to alleviate any Russian fears that its neighbour could be given fast-tracked entry.
A key sticking point is likely to lie in the settlement of territory. Under Mr Trump’s proposal, Russia would be given the Donbas region and formal recognition of Crimea. The frontlines would be frozen in the other key regions, including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
It would mean Mr Zelensky would be required to cede even more Ukrainian territory than Russia currently controls.
Instead, Europe suggested that negotiations on territorial swaps should “start from the Line of Contact,” reducing the amount of land Putin could lay claim to.
“Once future territorial arrangements have been agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force,” the plan adds.
The deal also states that the “size of Ukraine military is to be capped at 800,000 in peacetime”, whereas an earlier version of the European plan included no cap. The US-Russian proposal asked for a 600,000 cap.
Even with the cap, Kyiv’s army – which currently stands at around 850,000 – would be one of the largest in the world.
It also represents a marked increase from three years ago, when Moscow proposed Ukraine retain a peacetime army size of around 85,000 during peace talks in Istanbul.
One of Kyiv’s red lines centres around whether it would be given strong security guarantees in the event of a future Russian invasion.
Both proposals agree with the need for security guarantees to act as a deterrent to Vladimir Putin.
Europe pledges for them to be “robust” while America insists they will be “reliable”.
More importantly, the European plan suggests a US guarantee that mirrors Nato’s Article 5, which would commit America to treat an attack on Ukraine as an attack on an ally.
Both plans note that the US will receive compensation for providing security guarantees for an undisclosed sum.
Both the US and Europe agree on the need to reintegrate Russia in the global economy. Russia will be allowed back into the G8, while Europe suggests sanction relief will be discussed “and agreed upon in phases and on a case-by-case basis.”