Russia Chartbook by KSE Institute: Energy Price Moderation Returns Pressures; Budget Deficit Grows

KSE Institute has published the August edition of its Russia Chartbook, “Energy Price Moderation Returns Pressures; Budget Deficit Grows.” Russia’s oil export earnings continued to decline in July, the federal budget deficit grew, and options for financing it became increasingly constrained. The macroeconomic outlook also remains fragile.

Russia’s oil export earnings fell to $13.8 billion in July, down from $15.8 billion in June. This time, the main driver was a substantial decline in export volumes, while Russian oil export prices remained largely stable. The average export price stood at $63.9 per barrel, compared with $65.2 in June, while total crude oil and petroleum product exports fell from 7.6 to 7.0 million barrels per day. Crude exports declined due to temporary closures of the Novorossiysk port, while petroleum product exports were affected by continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and associated export bans on diesel, gasoline, and gasoil.

After two months of relative stability, the federal budget deficit grew again. The cumulative deficit reached 6.5 trillion rubles in January-July, increasing by around 600 billion rubles in July alone. Non-oil and gas revenues fell by 22% compared with June, while expenditures rose by 13%, pushing the deficit higher. It is now 40% larger than in January-July 2025 and 34